On Obama vs. Limbaugh

Conservative talk radio host Rush Limbaugh set off a firestorm of controversy earlier this month when he said that he "hopes Obama fails" because a successful Obama presidency and a conservative agenda cannot coexist. This comment received a lot of attention in the blogosphere which is now having renewed debates about patriotism and partisanship (see here, here, and here).

In response, President Obama caught the world of conservative talk radio by surprise when he warned that "you can't just listen to Rush Limbaugh and get things done." Not wanting to let this charge go unanswered, Limbaugh fired back by saying Obama was "frightened" of him. He also chastised the congressional Republican leadership for not being tough enough on the new president.

A conventional interpretation of Obama's remarks is that Obama believes that while Limbaugh's combativeness and unwillingness to compromise may be sweet music to hardcore conservatives, his approach to politics is ultimately problematic because it turns so many voters off and results in political stalemates and animosity. However, the interpretation of Obama's words is far less important than the reason why he even bothered to get involved in this discussion in the first place.

At first glance, it appears that Obama made a mistake by criticizing Limbaugh. An old saying on the campaign trail is that if you're going to shoot, you never aim down. Obama is the President of the United States. As the new leader of the free world, he has more power, more importance, more influence, and more respect than anyone else in the country. Rush Limbaugh may have an audience of 20 million listeners, but Barack Obama received almost 70 million votes. Therefore, one could argue that Obama is diminishing his stature by engaging Limbaugh. Elevated by Obama, Limbaugh could then argue to his listeners that he has gotten under Obama's skin. This translates into better ratings for Limbaugh and greater approval from his listeners who love the red meat.

However, after running a successful two-year long presidential campaign characterized by strict message discipline, it is possible that Obama was thinking beyond Limbaugh.

There are three main segments of Republican voters:

1. Moderate Republicans. These Republicans tend to be conservative on fiscal issues, but more moderate on social issues. They often live in the suburbs and are well off financially. These kinds of Republicans kept Midwestern and Northeastern states like Michigan, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania competitive. Of all Republicans, these types were probably the most likely to vote for Barack Obama last November or may tepidly identify themselves as Blue Dog Democrats now. Icons of this wing of the party include Colin Powell, Lincoln Chafee, Mitt Romney, Olympia Snowe, and Bob Ehrlich.

2. Small government conservatives. These Republicans simply want to be left alone. They don't want the government to do anything with their land, their guns, or their money. They are conservative on social issues as well, but think these issues are best resolved at the state level. These Republicans were probably pulling their hair out when they were in the majority during the first 6 years of Bush's presidency because they saw the rest of their party running off the rails in terms of government spending and government growth. Many of them live in the libertarian West. Icons of this wing of the GOP include Mike Pence, John Shadegg, John McCain, Lisa Murkowski, Eric Cantor, and John Barrasso.

3. Conservative populists. Also known as the Republican base, these Republicans are conservative on fiscal issues and conservative on social issues, but they seek government intervention when it comes to implementing their social policies (such as a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage). Concentrated in the South and rural Midwest, this wing of the party was probably more likely to subscribe to the rumors about Obama's religion and his ties to "terrorists." These hard right Republicans did not like John McCain, but they absolutely loved Sarah Palin. In addition to Palin, other icons of this wing of the party include Saxby Chambliss, Tom Tancredo, Tony Perkins, James Inhofe, and Sean Hannity.

This third wing of the GOP constitutes Rush Limbaugh's core audience. But it is also this wing of the party that is hurting the Republican Party's ability to keep the first wing of the party in line and bring independents and conservative Democrats into its ranks. There is a complete leadership vacuum in the GOP right now. John McCain lost the election and is now just another senator. The RNC is still looking for a chairman. Most voters don't know who Mitch McConnell and John Boehner are (they are the majority leaders of the Senate and House, respectively). And Sarah Palin clearly split the party. So perhaps Rush Limbaugh is filling this leadership void. Even though he holds no office, he does wield tremendous influence and is intensely popular with the base.

By elevating Limbaugh, Obama is also shining a spotlight on the wing of the party Limbaugh represents. This puts the cool and bipartisan Obama against the fiery and antagonistic Limbaugh. Because voters responded well to Obama's message of "change" and bipartisanship, they will probably think that Obama looks much more mature and much more politically appealing than Limbaugh. Of course, Limbaugh is not running for office.

However, this presents a dilemma for Republican politicians. Do they distance themselves from Limbaugh because his rhetoric is over the top? Or do they embrace Limbaugh and risk limiting their appeal beyond the conservative populist base? Congressman Phil Gingrey of Georgia initially came out against Limbaugh, but later called Limbaugh during his show and apologized for "putting his foot in his mouth." He also said he greatly respected "conservative icons" like Limbaugh who were helping to strengthen the base.

A point to remember is that in the current House of Representatives, most Republicans who survived the 2006 and 2008 elections represent solidly conservative districts. They don't have to worry about pleasing Democrats, liberals, and moderates. Perhaps Congressman Gingrey forgot that he represents a conservative district in Georgia. But what about other Republicans, especially those in the first two groups I mentioned above? How will they respond if they are called upon to denounce Limbaugh's remarks?

Obama is far more popular among far more people than Limbaugh is, and it appears that Obama may have put the Republican Party in a bit of a box by giving the least attractive wing of the party (politically speaking) a larger stage. For Republicans seeking to grow the party by appealing to a broader swath of the electorate, having Rush Limbaugh wish out loud that the new president fails and hearing him claim that "we have to bend over and grab our ankles because his father was Black" most certainly does not play well beyond his politically weakened audience.

For Republicans harboring broader political ambitions, Rush Limbaugh may help them in the primaries, but send them to their doom in a general election. President Obama may have outfoxed Republicans by stoking the fire and letting Limbaugh win the battle at the expense of losing the larger war.