Obama-McCain Second Debate Analysis

The second presidential debate took place tonight in Nashville, Tennessee. Unlike the first debate, this one was conducted in a town hall format which would incorporate questions from regular voters in the audience. Because John McCain had been criticizing Barack Obama for not joining him in town hall debates over the course of the campaign, McCain arguably had higher expectations to meet because this format was his specialty. And because he's trailing in the polls, he really needed to deliver a strong performance to reinvigorate his campaign.

That didn't happen.

McCain had three problems with this debate. First of all, he spent a lot of time talking about Ronald Reagan, Tip O'Neill, the KGB, Teddy Roosevelt, and even Herbert Hoover. That reinforces McCain's age and portrays him as representing the past. He seemed to have no new ideas, no new goals, and no sense of where he wanted to take the country. By contrast, Obama talked more about the future. He mentioned the 21st century several times and America's role in an ever-changing world. Obama spoke with greater vigor and had a more forward-looking vision.

The second problem was that compared to Obama, McCain tended to speak more in platitudes. Obama used a lot of generalities too, though not as often, but at least his generalities seemed to have greater relevance to average voters' lives. He displayed a greater sense of empathy and a better understanding of average people's lives. He mentioned sending children to college, rising insurance copayments and deductibles, and how energy independence was in our national security interests. As a bonus, he gave a far clearer explanation of how the problems on Wall Street are threatening the lives of regular people. All of this is undercutting the common attacks on Obama as being an elitist or "not one of us."

Meanwhile, McCain threatened to portray himself as the candidate who is out of touch with voters. For example, instead of talking about sacrifices McCain would ask the nation to make, he delivered a long diatribe against earmarks. Do voters really care about a $3 million telescope in Chicago when their 401(k) lost $30,000 in the stock market over the past week?

McCain's generalities sounded more like empty platitudes and slogans:

"I know how to get Osama bin Laden." (So tell President Bush and go get him already!)

"Social Security is easy to fix." (Then tell us how!)

"We can solve this problem by working together." (That's a solution?!)

The third problem concerned McCain's tone. Perhaps the town hall format actually worked against McCain in that unlike the town halls he's used to experiencing, this one did not feature a partisan Republican audience. So perhaps McCain had trouble adjusting to the fact that some of the jokes or applause lines he would employ on the campaign trail before friendly audiences fell flat or were otherwise inappropriate at the debate tonight.

Also, by attacking Obama using mischaracterizations of his record, he is by extension insulting voters' intelligence by distorting Obama's positions right after they heard them. Claiming that Obama wanted to "attack Pakistan" after Obama said he would launch a strike in the event of actionable intelligence regarding Osama bin Laden's whereabouts sounded dishonest. Such instances threaten to erode McCain's credibility and make future assertions from his campaign fall upon deaf ears. Sarah Palin's credibility beyond the Republican base is limited, so McCain has to be careful not to squander his own.

Here are some key moments that will likely crystallize in voters' minds:

1. "That one." This was an inexplicably rude way for McCain to refer to Obama. Both are United States senators who are running to be President of the United States. For McCain to essentially call Obama an "it" will likely feed into the burgeoning narrative of McCain's ill temperament. Obama consistently referred to McCain as "Senator McCain" or "John McCain." However, McCain's dehumanizing "that one" remark showed the contempt he has for Obama and his candidacy. Despite their differences in age, experience, and life histories, Barack Obama and John McCain are equals on stage. "That one" is not a comment befitting a statesman, much less a president.

2. "Bomb bomb bomb Iran." One of Obama's strongest retorts of the night came after McCain talked about Obama's provocative remarks regarding foreign policy and military action. McCain tried to emphasize that an inexperienced, bombastic Obama could have disastrous effects regarding foreign policy and national security. Obama then turned McCain's rhetoric against him by reminding the audience that McCain's "bomb bomb bomb Iran" quip contradicted his own rhetoric and undercut McCain's own credibility on foreign policy.

3. "Health care is a right." John McCain made the conservative argument that health care is a responsibility. That's a valid point. If you don't want health care, you shouldn't have to purchase it. But you should because it's the responsible thing to do, and the onus for purchasing it should be on individuals. However, that is not what voters wanted to hear. Obama said that America is a first-rate nation in which Americans should have the right to quality medical care. That statement tapped into the anger and frustrations many people are experiencing and showed that Obama understood their feelings.

Obama is looking increasingly plausible as a future president. He appears even-tempered, pleasant, empathetic, reasonably competent on foreign policy, and in touch with voters on the economy. On the other hand, John McCain is looking increasingly cantankerous, unsteady, tired, out of touch, and stale. McCain clearly lost this debate and lost his last best chance to boost his campaign. It is true that there is one debate left, but the problem is that this final debate is about the one subject McCain wants to avoid: the economy and domestic issues. Obama was able to establish himself as McCain's near equal on foreign policy in both debates so far. McCain will be hard pressed to establish himself as Obama's near equal on the economy in the final debate next week.

One trap that many politicos, journalists, and pundits fall into is the tendency to call the presidential race even. It's common to hear phrases like "too close to call" and "in a dead heat." Part of this is because they don't want to appear biased and risk losing their credibility in their quest to be objective. Others think a close race makes for a better storyline than a blowout. However, this race is clearly getting away from McCain. The race as it stands right now is not even. Barack Obama is leading almost every national poll and is on offense in a lot more red states than McCain is in blue states. Because of the town hall format, again, which is McCain's specialty, McCain really had a chance to change the campaign narrative and eat into Obama's lead. But he squandered it.

This campaign has shifted from 2004 to 1980 with a bit of 1996 mixed in. (Read more here.) If all the McCain-Palin ticket has to go on is earmarks, media bias, William Ayers, Ronald Reagan, experience, and taxes, November 4th could be a long night. McCain may well lose this election handily, but the new danger is that he threatens to take Republicans down the ballot with him. For him to right his ship, he needs a new, credible, and unique economic plan--and he needs it now. It is the issue of the election, and there's not a lot of time left to sufficiently address it.